Request Summary
Update Process for Load Growth Factor in BPM 103
Co-sponsors
Description Of Issue
The current 1.1% Load Growth Rate specified in BPM 103 is not reflective of recent trends and does not account for localized and evolving growth trends such as industrial onshoring and data center expansions, which have led to significant increases in demand. Without a mechanism for regular updates, this growth rate may quickly become outdated, leading to inaccurate forward showing requirements and potential resource adequacy challenges.
Proposed Solution
Implement a process for annual updates to the Load Growth Factor by incorporating updates based on the latest data and growth patterns.
Specific Document And Language
BPM 103
Section 5.1 – Established Growth Rate.
The language currently indicates that updates may occur but does not specify a frequency or mechanism for regular reviews.
Suggested Language Update
The 1.1% Load Growth Factor will be reviewed annually to incorporate the latest available data, including regional and sub-regional growth forecasts. Updates will ensure the Load Growth Factor reflects evolving trends and support equitable and accurate resource adequacy calculations across WRAP participants.
Benefits
Regular updates to the Load Growth Factor will ensure that forward showing requirements reflect real-world conditions. Additionally, this process will reduce the risk of underestimating future resource needs, supporting the program's overarching goal of maintaining regional resource adequacy.
Data Or Information
The 2023 Western Assessment of Resource Adequacy report shows a 1.64% compound annual growth rate for peak demand and a 1.74% growth rate for energy from 2024-2033. Additionally, the 2024 Western Assessment of Resource Adequacy report prominently features load growth.