Change Request 2026-CRF-006

BPM 203 – Program Sharing Calculation Inputs states that the Uncertainty Factor is set two hours ahead of the Sharing Calculation run. This creates the potential for the binding Sharing Calculation and the Uncertainty Factor to be based on different load forecasts. Changing the Uncertainty calculation to occur at the same time as the binding Sharing Calculation would ensure that the best available load forecast is being used to determine both the Uncertainty Factor and the binding Sharing Calculation.

BPM 203 – Program Sharing Calculation Inputs – change the language stating the Uncertainty calculation is done two hours ahead of the Sharing Calculation run. Instead, the Uncertainty calculation will be run after 5:20 AM PPT and results will be made available before 6 AM PPT on each preschedule day. The Ops client will continue to show preliminary forecasts of Uncertainty the way it does today.

In BPM 203, Section 3, change the strikethrough to the proposal language in red

The Uncertainty Factor to be utilized on the Preschedule Day is determined by the Program Administrator with assistance of the Program Operator two hours ahead of concurrent with the Sharing Calculation run described in BPM 201 Operations Program Timeline. The final value of the Uncertainty Factor used for each hour of the Preschedule Day will be shown in the Program Interface Tool, as will the Uncertainty Factor values used in the MultiDay-Ahead Assessment.

See above

This change ensures the Uncertainty Factor is set using the same load forecast that drives the binding Sharing Calculation. Currently the Uncertainty Factor is locked roughly two hours ahead of the binding run, so any load forecast a participant submits after that point but before the 05:20 PPT input deadline updates the binding Sharing Calculation while leaving the Uncertainty Factor based on a stale forecast.