The Winter and the Summer P50 Peak Load Forecast Methodologies in BPM 103 fail to adequately capture discrete load additions or subtractions of loads in the medium term (as those changes gradually become part of the five years of historical load data used to calculate the monthly P50 Peak Load Forecasts).
These discrete load changes could be additions and subtractions, in scenarios where load is existing or new, meaning historical load data exists or does not, respectively. Clear direction and a robust policy for discrete load changes is important for all Participants experiencing discrete load changes but is of particular consequence when one Participant transfers the responsibility for its load and resources in its entirety to another Participant, as is anticipated by Snohomish PUD’s transition in BPA service contracts, resulting in BPA representation of Snohomish’s load in October 2025.
101. Please supply any comments related to Section Winter P50 Peak Load Forecast (4.1)202. Please supply any comments related to Section Summer P50 Peak Load Forecast (4.2)303. Please supply any comments related to Appendix A - P50 Peak Load Forecast Modifications Senior Official Attestation4General Comment
Comment Topic
Overview
Lead Sponsor's Description of the Issue:
The Winter and the Summer P50 Peak Load Forecast Methodologies in BPM 103 fail to adequately capture discrete load additions or subtractions of loads in the medium term (as those changes gradually become part of the five years of historical load data used to calculate the monthly P50 Peak Load Forecasts).
These discrete load changes could be additions and subtractions, in scenarios where load is existing or new, meaning historical load data exists or does not, respectively. Clear direction and a robust policy for discrete load changes is important for all Participants experiencing discrete load changes but is of particular consequence when one Participant transfers the responsibility for its load and resources in its entirety to another Participant, as is anticipated by Snohomish PUD’s transition in BPA service contracts, resulting in BPA representation of Snohomish’s load in October 2025.
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Responses
Comments Received
Matt H. / BPA
Bonneville appreciates the opportunity to provide comments. Bonneville fully supports CRF…